Knowing when to increase or decrease your kettlebell weight is not a 'hard and fast' rule but more of a guideline.
Keep in mind that your primary goal should be to confidently control your movements, challenge yourself a bit, while at the same time avoid injury.
Most people will be able to swing a more substantial kettlebell weight than they can lift in a grind (slow, controlled movement) type exercise. If you can perform 15-18 grind movements (e.g. Turkish Get-ups or windmills) easily without a rest break, then try moving up to the next kettlebell weight size (2kg or 4lb).
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